DR. MICHAEL A. ROSTEK is advising the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) on institutionalizing futures thinking in order to assist in development and implementation of futures concepts through teaching and practice.

A recent Concepts Team investigated the increasingly uncertain and complex nature of contemporary and future security challenges, using a “strategic foresight process” that allowed the team to research and articulate a means to address increased complexity and uncertainty, while avoiding predictions in a nonlinear environment. Given the analysis of a number of key trends and two main drivers—energy and environment—four alternative futures scenarios emerged as distinct possiblities. Mike recently briefed key Canadian national security decsionmakers on the critical need to develop an early warning framework resulting from the possible shifts into alternate worlds identified in the environmental scenarios, driven by climate disruption and accelerating migration from countries facing severe changes in climate patterns.

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